Monday, August 30, 2010

We need about 2.5 % growth just to keep unemployment from rising

Unfortunately, that’s not true: this isn’t a recovery, in any sense that matters.

Yet growth is currently running somewhere between 1 and 2 percent, with a good chance that it will slow even further in the months ahead. Will the economy actually enter a double dip, with G.D.P. shrinking? Who cares? If unemployment rises for the rest of this year, which seems likely, it won’t matter whether the G.D.P. numbers are slightly positive or slightly negative. 

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