Saturday, June 27, 2015

TICK; TICK;TIC : Intel inherently unable to switch to 10 nm node

Intel will likely release a Core i series processor lineup in 2016 based on the Kaby Lake-series. This would be the 3rd generation processors that Intel fabs at 14nm.

99% BAD HARDWARE WEEK: Well, 10nm is far from REAL 10nm, namely it is only node name. And Intel is notoriously unable to reach even that. Low performance, low price. Only future Kaby worth mention is H -line with 256 MB L4 cache. Intel's bulk Si has hit Lgate problem. FinFET could solve it but introducing its own scaling problems.

The cost per gate for 28nm bulk HKMG CMOS will be much lower than FinFETs even in the fourth quarter of 2017. A similar pattern will occur for 20nm HKMG in 2018 or 2019 when depreciation costs decline.
The data indicates that FinFETs can be used for high-performance or ultra-dense designs but are not cost effective in mainstream semiconductors. There's no end in sight for this situation. Scaling to 10nm and 7nm nodes will entail additional wafer processing challenges for which the industry is not well prepared. Thus, watch your money or performance ! You can't get both at the same time. NEVER MORE !
So, Intel in the future needs one or more TICKs than used to. To make some decent profit returns on big new process investement . In situations when PC market where Intel's X86 dominates, shrinks year after year.

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